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Geregistreerd op: 10 Jul 2019
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 Geplaatst: 22-07-2019 02:52:07 Onderwerp: the chance to hit the de |
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| Im going to write in defence of Capitals RW Alex Ovechkin, if only because there have been some recent attacks and, while I can certainly live with them being directed at Ovechkin, the analytical process ought to be better, particularly if its going to be a hit piece on the leagues leading goal-scorer. Yes, Im writing to defend a player that is on pace for a 59-goal season, when the second-best goal-scorer in the NHL this season, Torontos Phil Kessel, is on pace for 43. Naturally, I didnt think that Ovechkin would be a player that needed much defending, but hes taken some hits lately. Im going to largely ignore his contributions on the power play because its not in any dispute that Ovechkin is great with the man advantage and can make a difference even when he doesnt score. On one side of the discussion, we have the Toronto Star, with their Department of Hockey Analytics, and while there are plenty of flaws in Ovechkins game, they somehow determined that his goals-for/against percentage was the way to illustrate the problem. Never mind that goals for/against percentage is essentially measuring plus-minus. Ill get to that in a moment but, first, also peruse the Hockey News piece by Ken Campbell who, after Ovechkin was minus-5 against Columbus, decided that Ovechkin has to decide what kind of player he is. After all, Ovechkin was minus-17 on the season after that game. Whats odd about using plus-minus to denigrate Ovechkins contributions is that anyone doing serious analytical work in hockey has been against using plus-minus because it involves so many factors beyond an individual players control (not least of which are the contributions of nine other skaters and two goaltenders when the game is 5-on-5) and, generally, involves small samples because goals are relatively rare events. Its funny to find myself in this position, because I can be a bit of an apologist for plus-minus. You spend enough time around the game and that thinking can be pretty common, and when the sample is large enough, you can get a pretty decent list of players at both ends of the spectrum. (For example, heres the list of players with the best cumulative plus-minus since 2000, and here are the worst.) But, Ive at least learned that there are many other factors that go into whether a player is a plus or minus player, and they must be considered if youre going to attempt to pass judgment on a single season or, especially, a portion of a season. So, lets take a look at some factors that are at play to make Alex Ovechkin a minus-17. First off, the shooting percentage of others on the ice with Ovechkin at 5-on-5 is ridiculously low. His 6.3% is only ahead of fourth-liners Aaron Volpatti and Jay Beagle among Capitals forwards. The suggestion could be made -- and of course it has been -- that Ovechkin isnt making those around him better, but here are the 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages when Ovechkin has been on the ice for the past five seasons: 10.36%, 8.62%, 8.05%, 11.76%, 9.09%. Youre really going to have to dig for reasons, other than poor luck and ineffective shooters, to explain even-strength shooting effectiveness declining by 40% over last season, especially when Ovechkin himself is shooting 10.6% (18 goals, 170 shots) at 5-on-5. Taking away Ovechkins 18 goals on 170 shots, leaves the other Capitals to score eight goals on 242 shots (3.3%) with Ovechkin on the ice. Marcus Johansson, his most common left winger, has one goal on 51 shots. This undeniably effects plus-minus, right? Of course it does. Give Ovechkin an average on-ice shooting percentage (say, 8%) and that is a difference of about seven goals. At the other end of the rink, Ovechkin is getting burned with a .909 save percentage at 5-on-5. Naturally, the argument will be that Ovechkins defensive play is what leads to that low percentage. Keep in mind, that percentage is well below career norms for him (.922 over the past five seasons, including this one) and ranks near the bottom on the Capitals roster. Use that typical save percentage, on 439 shots against, and that becomes a difference of 5-6 goals. So, why not take a look at where the shots are coming from with Ovechkin on the ice? According to Some Kind of Ninjas Shot Tracker, shots against the Capitals with Ovechkin on the ice at even strength, come from an average distance of 34.5 feet. In the previous five seasons, it has been 34.2, 36.6, 35.8, 34.6 and 35.9 feet on average. There can be an argument made, based on those average shot distances, that Ovechkins most effective defensive performances were in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 (the Dale Hunter season), but there really isnt a huge difference; goaltenders arent suddenly flummoxed by 34-foot shots when 36-footers are easy pickings. On top of that, best of luck trying to identify those particular seasons as anything close to Ovechkins best. Why? Because he scored 70 goals and 150 points in 157 games over those two seasons, producing the two lowest point scoring rates of his career. Yes, even lower than this season, when virtually no one else puts the puck in the net with him on the ice. Of course Ovechkin is not a defensive whiz, but that shouldnt stand as an indictment any more than it has for elite offensive players throughout the history of the game. Seriously, take a look at the Top 10 goal-scorers in the league, none of whom put the puck in the net like Ovechkin, and identify the ones that are notably strong backcheckers. Some are: Joe Pavelski, Alexander Steen, Patrick Sharp, but theres no reason to believe that right wingers Kessel or Corey Perry or Patrick Kane are doing brilliant work in the defensive end. Heres the thing: theyre all great players! Part of the trouble for Ovechkin is that the Capitals havent been able to win in the postseason, so he gets painted with the brush of failure for a whole host of team shortcomings. Thats what comes with being a superstar. This Capitals team is flawed. They rank in the bottom third of the league in Fenwick Close (measuring shot attempts, not including blocks, at even strength, with the score close), which is a good indication of team puck possession, yet Ovechkin has relatively solid possession numbers. If you want to break down a players overall contribution, and feel that you must use one statistic in order to do so (better yet, dont), then at least reduce the impact of others on the ice and look at the possession stats, because it wont matter that linemates arent finishing or that, for whatever reason, goaltenders arent stopping the puck. Shooting and save percentages fluctuate and while they affect perception -- just ask Tyler Bozak -- they dont get to the bottom of a players on-ice contribution, and so it is with Ovechkin this year, who is having a fine season, no matter what his plus-minus says. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. Tyrann Mathieu Womens Jersey . - The Raiders have released guard Mike Brisiel after two disappointing seasons in Oakland. Travis Kelce Jersey . -- Brendan Leipsic had two goals and an assist and Nicolas Petan extended his point streak to 11 games as the Portland Winterhawks slipped past the Red Deer Rebels 5-4 on Saturday in Western Hockey League action. http://www.prochiefsauthentic.com/Youth-Larry-Johnson-Elite-Jersey/ . The eighth-year point guard played in his 500th career game on Sunday, a 98-93 win over the Orlando Magic. Does he feel like hes played in that many games? "No," he said initially, before reconsidering. Mecole Hardman Womens Jersey . "Ive still got it," Seattles ace said with a sly grin. Riding that fastball carrying a little more zip, Hernandez took a shutout bid into the ninth inning as the Mariners beat the Los Angeles Angels 3-1 on Wednesday night. On the verge of a brilliant shutout and first complete game since Aug. Derrick Thomas Chiefs Jersey . - New Orleans Saints general manager Mickey Loomis says the club has an agreement to bring back outside linebacker Parys Haralson on a one-year deal.ST. SIMONS ISLAND, Ga. - Ted Bishop was ousted Friday as president of the PGA of America over a sexist tweet and Facebook post directed at Ian Poulter.Bishop was irritated by remarks Poulter made in his book on the Ryder Cup captaincy of Nick Faldo in 2008 and Tom Watson this year. He referred to Poulter as Lil Girl on Twitter when stacking up Poulters feats next to Faldo. In a Facebook post, he noted that Watson (with eight majors) and Faldo (with six majors and the Ryder Cup record for most points) were getting bashed by Poulter.Really? Sounds like a little school girl squealing during recess. CMON MAN! he wrote.The PGA of America board voted Friday to remove him, meaning Bishop will not be invited to future PGA Championships and Ryder Cups, or any other courtesies extended to past presidents. He is the first PGA president to be ousted. Bishop had one month left on his two-year term.Bishop, who has two daughters, apologized to Poulter and anyone else I might have offended in a statement.But the head pro from Indiana went down swinging.Bishop said his fellow PGA officers asked him to resign Friday and he refused, wanting instead to apologize in person to the board and let the process run its course.The board heard me out and then voted to impeach me, he said. That is the due process and I respect that, as painful as it might be.In removing Bishop as president, the PGA of America board said the remarks were inconsistent with associations policies.The PGA of America understands the enormous responsibility it has to lead this great game and to enrich lives in our society through golf, PGA chief executive Pete Bevacqua said in a statement. We must demand of ourselves that we make golf both welcoming and inclusive to all who want to experience it, and everyone at the PGA of America must lead by example.The PGA of America has 27,000 members, about 1,100 of them women. Bevacqua said in a telephone interview that he received a lot of negative feedback from all types of sources, internal and external. He declined to specify whether PGA female members were part of that.Bishop was irritated by comments Poulter made in his book released this week about the Ryder Cup captaincy of Faldo in 2008 and Watson this year at Gleneagles. Bishop was with Faldo at The Greenbrier on Thursday when he tweeted to Poulter, Faldos record stands by itself. Six majors and all-time RC points. Yours vs. His? Lil Girl.The Facebook post was even stronger. Bishop deleted both Thursday evening and said in an email to The Associated Press that I could have selected some different way to express my thoughts on Poulters remarks.Derek Sprague, expected to be voted in as the next president at the Nov. 22 annual meeting, was appointed the interim president. Paul Levy will handle the roles as vice-president and secretary until the election.Bishop has been one of the most outspoken presidents of the PGA of America. But his social media rrant got him into trouble.ddddddddddddThis is a classic example of poor use of social media on my part and if I had the chance to hit the delete button on the things that I sent out yesterday, I would without hesitation, Bishop said. The PGA of America asked me to avoid any interaction with the media in the past 24 hours and that is why I did not issue a formal and public apology, which I have wanted to do since early this morning.Bishop described the consequences as drastic, but that he has to live with his mistake.Today, all I have left is my PGA membership and that will always mean the world to me, Bishop said. He is president of Legends Golf Club in Franklin, Indiana.Suzy Whaley, a teaching pro from Connecticut who qualified to play a PGA Tour event in Hartford in 2003, is among three PGA members running for secretary at the Nov. 22 election. If she wins, Whaley would be in line to be PGA president in 2018.Whaley said she found Bishops remarks to be insulting.I was extremely disappointed and they were definitely sexist, Whaley said in a telephone interview. Im of 100 per cent belief that we need to empower young girls. Asked if she complained to the PGA officers, Whaley said, I didnt have to do that.The PGA of America took incredibly swift action and are taking this extremely seriously, Whaley said. Obviously, its critical that we are inclusive.Poulter was on a plane to China when Bishop posted his remarks and wasnt aware of them until he landed and found his phone filled with messages.Is being called a lil girl meant to be derogatory or a put down? Poulter said in a statement. Thats pretty shocking and disappointing, especially coming from the leader of the PGA of America.Bishops boldest move as president was to pick Watson as the U.S. captain, saying he was tired of the Americans losing. But the move backfired when Watsons heavy-handed style didnt mesh with a younger generation. Watson, 65, was the oldest captain in Ryder Cup history.Poulter in his book said that Watsons decision-making completely baffles me. He was referring to benching Phil Mickelson and Keegan Bradley for both sessions Saturday. He also was critical of Faldo for his commentary on Golf Channel during the Ryder Cup that Sergio Garcia was useless in 2008. Faldo was captain of the only European team to lose in the last 15 years, and Poulter wrote, So whos useless? I think Faldo might need to have a little look in the mirror.Davis Love III described Bishop as a friend and a great supporter of golf and said he would not remember his presidency for this incident. Among other things, the PGA joined up with the LPGA Tour to help pay for its oldest major. The Womens PGA Championship will be sponsored by KPMG, which will use the week to host a major conference for women executives.I have said things in my passion for the Ryder Cup that I wish came out differently, Love said. We all make mistakes on social media. ' ' ' |
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